***This briefing is held prior to the BCCT Multi-Chambers Eastern Seaboard Networking at Centara Grand Mirage Beach Resort.***
Thailand – Where we differ from consensus, and why
We have three non-consensus views on Thailand. First, we expect GDP growth of 4.3% in 2018, above the consensus estimate of c.4.0%. We think consensus growth expectations for 2018 will rise as the manufacturing, services and agricultural sectors show improvement. Second, we expect the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to raise its policy rate in Q3 after keeping it unchanged at 1.5% for around three years; pressure from other central banks and solid economic growth are key reasons for our view. Third, while exports and tourism should continue to support the current account (C/A) and the Thai baht (THB) in 2018, a sharp rise in imports could narrow the C/A surplus more than the market currently expects over the medium term.
Date: Friday 16 February 2018
Time: 5.00 – 6.00pm (4.30 registration). Prior to the multi-chamber networking. Venue: Utopia room, 1st floor, Centara Grand Mirage Beach Resort Pattaya, 277 Moo 5, Naklua, Banglamung, Pattaya (map) Speaker: Tim Leelahaphan, Economist, Standard Chartered Bank Topic: 2018 Global Outlook: Thailand – Where we differ from consensus, and why
Cost: free of charge for advance booking. THB400 for walk-ins.